306  
FXUS01 KWBC 220800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
359 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON OCT 22 2018 - 12Z WED OCT 24 2018  
   
..HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES FOR SOUTH TEXAS
 
 
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY GIVE WAY TO LOCALIZED FLASH  
FLOODING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO WEST TEXAS...  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS  
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND  
WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL RESULT; FOR TODAY, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF  
THE BIG BEND, ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, AND NEAR THE MIDDLE  
TEXAS COAST WHERE THERE IS A LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT. DUE TO  
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS, SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD GIVE WAY TO  
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THUS, A MARGINAL RISK FOR BROWNSVILLE AND  
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST ARE IN  
EFFECT TODAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH, THE SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON  
TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL  
BEGIN PUSHING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS  
WILL BRING MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL GREAT  
BASIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS  
THESE REGIONS TODAY AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN  
COLORADO INTO WEST TEXAS BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY  
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ON AN EASTERLY PATH. A MARGINAL RISK  
OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN  
ADDITION TO A MARGINAL RISK ON TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF NEW MEXICO  
AND WEST TEXAS.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STAY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST  
OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.  
AFTER A VERY COLD, FREEZING START TO MONDAY MORNING, LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. BECAUSE OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S--NEARLY 10 TO 20  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE, MOST OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL  
EXPERIENCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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