302  
FXUS01 KWBC 251831  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
231 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 26 2018 - 00Z SUN OCT 28 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF  
COAST...  
 
...DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE  
EASTERN U.S....  
   
..HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON
 
 
   
..WARM DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
 
 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, WITH RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME  
STRONG TO SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, ESPECIALLY ALONG  
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND THE WEATHER  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH  
FLOODING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  
 
ON FRIDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL  
LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE  
EASTERN U.S. AS IT TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RAINS ARE  
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC  
REGION, INCLUDING SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY.  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY  
MORNING. WHILE RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE THE PREDOMINATE  
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR MOST AREAS, MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE  
ONSET WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS  
OF NORTHERN UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. RAIN MAY ALSO CHANGE OVER TO FROZEN  
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA  
MOUNTAINS AS COLD AIR DEEPENS WEST OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE  
PERIODS OF RAIN AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE  
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE REGION ON  
SATURDAY.  
 
IN THE WEST, A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL HELP PRODUCE AREAS OF  
PRECIPITATION AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCLUDE SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF  
WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL  
MOUNTAIN RANGES AND THE NORTHERN CASCADES. ELSEWHERE, AREAS  
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE  
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
 
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL BE AT  
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTRAST WITH AT OR  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST AND  
EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
PEREIRA  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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