795  
FXUS01 KWBC 310747  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
347 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED OCT 31 2018 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2018  
 
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER  
GREAT LAKES...  
 
...SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM TEXAS TO THE  
GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...  
 
...ENHANCED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF  
CALIFORNIA...  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD ON  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, REACHING THE EASTERN STATES BY FRIDAY  
MORNING. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY  
WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WPC HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED AREAS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITHIN A  
SLIGHT RISK ON WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF  
COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. IN  
ADDITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT  
TO ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY, AND A SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THURSDAY.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PROMOTE WARMER THAN  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS  
IN THE 60S AND 70S IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 80S FARTHER SOUTH ALONG  
THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA ARE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL  
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BEHIND THE FRONT, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS  
HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FOUR CORNERS REGION  
WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL  
ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD INTO THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL BY  
THURSDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO  
WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY  
MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE  
WEST, UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN  
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND  
THE ROCKIES WHILE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL WILL  
IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY  
RAINFALL ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF WESTERN WASHINGTON AND  
OREGON. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CALIFORNIA AS  
WELL WITH AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE  
CENTRAL SACRAMENTO VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE LOS ANGELES AND SAN  
DIEGO REGIONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOME PLACES.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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