253  
FXUS01 KWBC 311915  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
314 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU NOV 01 2018 - 00Z SAT NOV 03 2018  
 
...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS  
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT  
RISK CONTINUING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY ON  
THURSDAY...  
 
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED NEAR A COLD FRONT FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF COAST NORTHWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER  
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...  
 
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY AN ELEVATED RISK ON THURSDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS AND LOUISIANA TONIGHT  
BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FALLING  
FROM HALLOWEEN'S 80S/90S TO THE 70S FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN FAVORABLE  
WINDS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE GREATEST THREATS COMING FROM  
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER, A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL REMAIN ON THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  
 
THE OTHER HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY  
RAIN. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST FROM SOUTHEASTERN  
TEXAS INTO AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH  
SIMILAR TOTALS (LOCALLY HIGHER) FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOMALOUS  
MOISTURE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT WILL  
GENERATE POSSIBLE FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGE  
PORTION OF REAL ESTATE COVERING LOCATIONS FROM THE GULF COAST TO  
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES  
WILL RANGE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND  
AVERAGE UP TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF  
THE COLD FRONT.  
 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG/GUSTY  
WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE INTO THURSDAY MORNING  
RELATIVE TO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN  
AN ELEVATED RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON  
THURSDAY INCLUDING THE SANTA ANA REGION.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY WITH VARYING  
INTENSITY WITH A TEMPORARY BREAK LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE  
EVENING. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RENEWED SURGE OF HEAVY  
RAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON, QUICKLY DROPPING  
SOUTH INTO OREGON AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST DURING  
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW INTO IDAHO, OREGON  
AND WYOMING.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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