877  
FXUS01 KWBC 010758  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
358 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU NOV 01 2018 - 12Z SAT NOV 03 2018  
 
...ONGOING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING INTO  
THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY...  
 
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST STATES ON THURSDAY...  
 
...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED BY FRIDAY FOR THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD, REACHING THE EAST  
COAST BY THIS WEEKEND. ONGOING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL  
CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, AND GIVEN ITS RELATIVELY  
SLOW MOVEMENT, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT. ON  
THURSDAY, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS GREATEST ALONG THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST STATES, AS WELL AS INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND  
LOWER GREAT LAKES, SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY  
AS THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT BEGINS LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A WARM  
FRONT. ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, SEVERE WEATHER WITH  
THE MAIN THREATS BEING TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS, WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE AND SPC HAS THIS REGION WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK ON THURSDAY.  
TEMPERATURE WISE, SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE  
ANOTHER WARM DAY FOR THE EASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY WHERE DAYTIME  
HIGHS IN THE 70S (80S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCATIONS) ARE ABOUT 10 TO  
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT FEATURES A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH  
TEMPERATURES 5 TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
OUT WEST, GENERAL UNSETTLED WEATHER KEEPS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION  
IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST. BY FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT  
NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF  
HEAVY RAIN TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON, AND PARTS OF THE  
INTERIOR NORTHWEST. HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, WITH MAINLY MINOR  
ACCUMULATIONS, WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF IDAHO,  
MONTANA, AND WYOMING. FARTHER SOUTH, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS  
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
THREAT ON THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING  
THE LOS ANGELES AND SAN DIEGO REGIONS.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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