194  
FXUS01 KWBC 011857  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
257 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI NOV 02 2018 - 00Z SUN NOV 04 2018  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TODAY SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST  
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING EXPECTED FROM THE  
EASTERN GULF COAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...  
 
...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING  
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...  
 
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL  
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE WEATHER IN  
THE EASTERN U.S. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AN ONGOING THREAT FOR  
SEVERE STORMS IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE  
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST REGION BUT THE SEVERE THREAT IS  
FORECAST TO WANE THROUGH TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS IN PLACE FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, LOWER THAN THE THREAT THAT WAS ASSOCIATED  
WITH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT STILL AN AREA WORTH MONITORING.  
 
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK THROUGH THE  
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO  
HEAVY RAIN SPREADING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW YORK AND  
NEW ENGLAND. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP  
ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA FRIDAY EVENING WHILE  
THE INITIAL LOW IN THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS. THE SECONDARY AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING WHILE TRACKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS SECONDARY  
LOW WILL BE TIED TO A RENEWED ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN, EMBEDDED  
THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS  
OVER THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. ONE  
TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN (LOCALLY HIGHER) CAN BE EXPECTED FROM NEAR  
WASHINGTON D.C. THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND  
WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS MORE LIKELY NEAR MAINE WHERE THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE REGION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED  
RAINFALL, FLASH FLOOD AND FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WARRANTED FROM  
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST INTO THE NORTHEAST, WITH THE  
THREAT ENDING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITH TIME.  
 
OUT WEST, RAINFALL AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE INTO THE  
OLYMPICS, COASTAL RANGES AND CASCADES OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON  
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL  
MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH  
SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF IDAHO, MONTANA AND  
WYOMING. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TOTALS OVER A FOOT WILL BE IN  
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A SECOND COLD FRONT  
IS EXPECTED TO NEAR WASHINGTON LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN  
TO THE REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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