996  
FXUS01 KWBC 021916  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
314 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SAT NOV 03 2018 - 00Z MON NOV 05 2018  
 
...SOME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD  
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...  
 
...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THE  
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...  
 
...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INCLUDING RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED  
TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
TO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...  
 
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL-BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO  
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD, AND THEN CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE  
INTERIOR OF THE NORTHEAST AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS  
OFFSHORE. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO  
SEVERE, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUING TO HIGHLIGHT A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD DOWN ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND  
COASTAL PLAIN AREAS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE  
FLORIDA PENINSULA. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT, ESPECIALLY  
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN AREA OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING  
NORTH ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST.  
THESE HEAVY RAINS MAY POSE SOME FLASH-FLOODING CONCERNS, WITH THE  
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND. AS THE LOW LIFTS  
INTO ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, EXPECT THE  
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO END ACROSS THE EASTERN  
U.S. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MUCH COLDER, WINDY AND  
SHOWERY CONDITIONS, INCLUDING SOME WET SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER  
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE  
THREAT OF STRONG WINDS HAS RESULTED IN HIGH WIND WATCHES BEING  
ISSUED ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FOR  
SATURDAY.  
 
FARTHER WEST, A FRONTAL SYSTEM ADVANCING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE  
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A RATHER WIDESPREAD AREA OF  
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL INCLUDE SOME LOCALLY  
HEAVY SNOWFALL, AND THERE ARE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WINTER  
STORM WATCHES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT LOCALLY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER NORTHEAST  
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO A  
CONCERN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS CURRENTLY IN  
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES FROM WESTERN MONTANA TO  
SOUTHERN WYOMING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND THEN REACH THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY  
WITH AN EXPANDING AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME WET SNOW WITH THIS  
SYSTEM AS IT ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD  
OF MINNESOTA. GRADUALLY A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS  
AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY  
LATE SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
IMPACTING THESE AREAS AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EAST.  
 
THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL REMAIN RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW DROPS DOWN  
FROM SOUTHWEST CANADA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON CASCADES AND THROUGH  
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY  
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST, THE WEATHER WILL  
BE VERY DRY AND WARM, AND THIS WILL ENHANCE CONCERNS FOR WILDFIRE  
ACTIVITY OVER ESPECIALLY CALIFORNIA.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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