373  
FXUS02 KWBC 050701  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
200 AM EST MON NOV 05 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU NOV 08 2018 - 12Z MON NOV 12 2018  
   
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
THE LATEST FEW GFS/GEFS AND ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE RUNS ARE NOW  
BETTER CLUSTERED INTO THU/FRI, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE A  
BIT WITH ACCEPTANCE OF A COMPOSITE BLEND SOLUTION THAT MAINTAINS  
DECENT WPC CONTINUITY. FORECAST SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY STEADILY  
INCREASES  
INTO DAYS 5-7 WITH EMBEDDED SYSTEMS WITHIN A GENERALLY SIMILAR  
LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME. ACCORDINGLY, PREFER A MORE ENSEMBLE MEAN  
BLEND THAT ALSO MAINTAINS A BIT MORE FLOW AMPLITUDE CONSISTENT  
WITH UPSTREAM FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC AND WPC CONTINUITY.  
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS
 
 
EXPECT OCCASIONAL MODEST RAIN/SNOW IN THE WEST WILL PERIODICALLY  
BE TIED TO INCOMING SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS. SYSTEM  
EJECTIONS FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS WHERE ENE FLOW AROUND A  
SURFACE HIGH MAY SUPPORT A SWATH OF SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
NORTHEASTWARD. TO THE SOUTH, GULF MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE  
RAINFALL (POTENTIALLY LOCALLY HEAVY VIA EMBEDDED CONVECTION) FROM  
THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE  
SOUTHEAST WITH FRONTAL PROGRESSION, WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS UP THE  
APPALACHIANS/EASTERN SEABOARD AIDED BY ATLANTIC INFLOW. AS THE  
FRONT CLEARS THE EAST COAST, LAKE-EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY WITH COLD  
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ATOP MILD LAKE TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL NW FLOW.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOST ANOMALOUSLY COOL OVER THE UPPER  
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS TEXAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME  
RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDWEST.  
CLIPPER LOW APPROACH SUN/NEXT MONDAY MAY SUPPORT SOME SNOW FOR  
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500 MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDEXES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
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