727  
FXUS01 KWBC 050748  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
247 AM EST MON NOV 05 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON NOV 05 2018 - 12Z WED NOV 07 2018  
 
...SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED CONCENTRATE MONDAY EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...  
 
...HEAVY RAINS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON  
MONDAY...  
   
..HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
 
 
A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO DROP  
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY. INCREASING  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DRAW VERY MOIST AIR UP  
FROM THE GULF COAST REGION, FUELING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT  
THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,  
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO  
THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY ON DAY 1. WITHIN THIS AREA, AN EMBEDDED ENHANCED RISK IS  
CENTERED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, WHERE  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER NOTES THAT SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF  
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE MONDAY  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, THERE  
IS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING, WITH  
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS  
ON DAY 1. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, WITH SHOWERS AND  
STORMS MOVING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY.  
AGAIN, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO  
SEVERE, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER INDICATING A SLIGHT RISK  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST NORTHWARD INTO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON DAY 2. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY  
EVENING. HOWEVER, THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
BACK TO THE WEST, RAIN AND SNOWS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL SYSTEM  
AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST  
ON MONDAY. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, COLDER AIR WILL SPILL SOUTHEAST  
FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., RESULTING IN  
SOME WELL-BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES  
INTO THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE FRONT BANKS UP  
ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THIS WILL ENCOURAGE PERIODS OF SNOW,  
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM THE RANGES OF  
NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA TO WESTERN WYOMING.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST  
AND THE GREAT BASIN. LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, ALONG WITH  
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS  
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CALIFORNIA ON  
MONDAY.  
 
PEREIRA  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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