126  
FXUS02 KWBC 060714  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
214 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 09 2018 - 12Z TUE NOV 13 2018  
 
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER  
HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...  
 
LATEST GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE NOW MUCH BETTER  
CLUSTERED AT MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES, BOLSTERING FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE. A COMPOSITE BLEND SOLUTION IS SUGGESTED.  
 
AMPLIFIED/DYNAMIC MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY  
FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL SUPPORT LEAD  
SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AND PROGRESSION. GULF  
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FEEDS WILL FAVOR MODERATE RAINS FROM THE  
WESTERN GULF COAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE  
APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. COOLING  
POST-SYSTEM TEMPS WILL MEANWHILE FAVOR WRAPBACK AND GREAT LAKE  
EFFECT SNOWS THAT SPREAD INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AS LEADING  
COOLED HIGH PRESSURE ERODES. PRECIPITATION MAY THEN BE ENHANCED  
INTO SATURDAY WITH MAIN LOW DEEPENING/PASSAGE AND TRIPLE POINT  
COASTAL LOW ORGANIZATION. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE MAINTAINED  
INTO NEXT WEEK BACK OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST WITH  
TRAILING FRONTAL SLOWDOWN.  
 
DEEP STORM TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/GULF OF ALAKSA WILL  
MAINTAIN AN AMPLIFIED DOWNSTREAM RIDGE POSITION ALONG/OFFSHORE  
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND DOWNSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
RE-DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN A WAKE OF THE  
LEAD SYSTEM, BUT NORTHERN STREAM CLIPPER LOW TRACK AND FAVORABLE  
DYNAMICS SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT A SWATH OF ORGANIZED SNOWS IN COOLED  
AIR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FARTHER SOUTH, WAVE/FRONTAL GENESIS  
AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAY FUEL RENEWED HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST, THEN MID-ATLANTIC WITH  
EAST-CENTRAL U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION.  
 
UPSTREAM, PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY AND HEIGHT FALLS MAY START TO WORK  
INTO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT A WEEK AS THE LEAD/AMPLIFIED RIDGE  
ALOFT GRADUALLY/FINALLY SHIFTS INLAND. THIS MAY SUPPORT AN  
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INCLUDING SOME MODEST ELEVATION  
SNOWS.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500 MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES  
AND HEAT INDEXES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page