144  
FXUS01 KWBC 081952  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
251 PM EST THU NOV 08 2018  
 
VALID 00Z FRI NOV 09 2018 - 00Z SUN NOV 11 2018  
   
..HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
 
 
...MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE GREAT  
PLAINS...  
 
...FIRE WEATHER A MAJOR CONCERN FOR CALIFORNIA WITH CRITICAL AND  
EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREAS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...  
 
...COASTAL STORM TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/WIND TO THE NORTHEAST  
FRIDAY NIGHT...  
 
A PREVIEW OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IS ALREADY IN PLACE FOR THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH TODAY'S HIGHS RANGING FROM THE  
TEENS TO 30S DOWN TO THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SEVERAL INCHES OF  
SNOW HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AS OF  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE  
SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS FOR FRIDAY WITH FORECAST  
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW EARLY NOVEMBER  
AVERAGES. THE COMBINATION OF THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR AND AN UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN, THE  
U.P. OF MICHIGAN ALONG WITH LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING  
AS A SURFACE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
AREAS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT  
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST WILL EXPERIENCE UNSETTLED  
WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS  
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ADVANCES EASTWARD FROM THE UPPER  
MIDWEST TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,  
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK RATHER  
QUICKLY ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO  
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS  
AND THE MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORMS SYSTEM.  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL USHER IN A  
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING  
DOWNWIND OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO EARLY SATURDAY.  
 
ACROSS CALIFORNIA, A COMBINATION OF ESPECIALLY DRY "FUELS" FOR  
BURNING DUE TO AN ONGOING DROUGHT, STRONG WINDS, AND LOW RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES WILL LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER  
IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS IN PLACE, SHOULD A  
FIRE DEVELOP, IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GROW AND SPREAD VERY  
RAPIDLY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED EXTREMELY  
CRITICAL CONDITIONS TODAY FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, AS STRONG SANTA  
ANA WINDS RAMP UP. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA WHICH INCLUDES THE LOS ANGELES METRO AREA AND CRITICAL  
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH  
INCLUDES THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN FRANCISCO METRO AREAS ARE IN  
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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