501  
FXUS01 KWBC 110759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
258 AM EST SUN NOV 11 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN NOV 11 2018 - 12Z TUE NOV 13 2018  
 
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN  
CALIFORNIA...  
 
...SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE ROCKIES AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN  
AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...  
 
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE  
STRONG WINDS ACROSS CALIFORNIA, AND DRY GROUND AND DRY RELATIVE  
HUMIDITIES WILL ALL COMBINE TO PROLONG DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER  
ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS EXTREMELY  
CRITICAL CONDITIONS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,  
WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO A  
SNOW EVENT IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE  
HIGHEST TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF THE ROCKIES, BUT SNOW IS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST IN  
PARTS OF THE PLAINS AS WELL. SNOW AMOUNTS ABOVE 6 INCHES ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT THE PLACEMENT OF  
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS UNCERTAIN, SO STAY ATTUNED TO THE LATEST  
FORECASTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH THE  
PLAINS INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTING HIGHS 15 TO 25 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT  
PUSHES EASTWARD, LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.  
 
FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH, MOISTURE WILL STREAM IN AHEAD OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS  
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST.  
THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN  
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY, WITH 1-2 INCHES  
OF RAIN FORECAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY EASTWARD  
ALONG THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY, AND A COLD FRONT AND LOW WILL FORM  
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO  
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.  
SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING ARE IN PLACE FOR  
THESE AREAS, AS WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY.  
ADDITIONALLY, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG  
THE COASTS, WHERE THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY IS.  
 
ELSEWHERE, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ARE  
EXPECTING MORE LIGHT SNOW OF 1 TO 4 INCHES DUE TO A LINGERING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
UPPER MIDWEST, LEADING TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF  
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM AND THE ONE FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL  
CONTRIBUTE TO SNOW FORMATION IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE  
INTERIOR NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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