027  
FXUS01 KWBC 120800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 AM EST MON NOV 12 2018  
 
VALID 12Z MON NOV 12 2018 - 12Z WED NOV 14 2018  
 
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN  
CALIFORNIA...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE  
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION...  
 
...SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY...  
 
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER IS UNFORTUNATELY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN  
CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP PRODUCING HIGH  
WINDS, AND VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.  
THIS PLUS THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL ALL CREATE  
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  
HAS AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA OUTLOOKED FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT AS WELL.  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
TODAY, WITH ANOTHER LOW FORMING MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD. THE DEVELOPING LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL LEAD TO  
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS  
TODAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS IN  
PLACE FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR  
MONDAY MORNING UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST, WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS INLAND SO THERE IS  
MORE INSTABILITY. RAIN WILL SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC AND COASTAL NORTHEAST ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW  
MOVES NORTH, WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE.  
 
A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT, SNOW IS POSSIBLE. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES  
ARE IN EFFECT FOR OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, AND NORTHERN  
ARKANSAS. FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS, BUT  
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG WITH  
THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO SNOW OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION AS WELL ON MONDAY. AS THE JET STREAM STRENGTHENS ON  
TUESDAY, SNOW FORECASTS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 ADDITIONAL  
INCHES IN PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NORTHERN MAINE IS  
EXPECTING HEAVY SNOW OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ON TUESDAY, ON THE BACKSIDE  
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.  
 
TEMPERATURE-WISE, MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST  
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 20 TO 30  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ARE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS,  
WITH COLD THROUGHOUT THE ROCKIES, PLAINS, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT IN PARTS OF TEXAS WHERE IT HAS NOT  
YET FROZEN THIS SEASON. MEANWHILE, FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO BE  
WARMER THAN NORMAL, AND COULD SET BOTH RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM AND  
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY. THE WEST COAST WILL BE WARMER  
THAN AVERAGE AS WELL.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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