965  
FXUS01 KWBC 121940  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
240 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE NOV 13 2018 - 00Z THU NOV 15 2018  
 
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN  
CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS AIR QUALITY ALERTS...  
 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF  
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN GULF  
COAST INTO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...  
 
...SNOW POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND LAKE  
EFFECT SNOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...  
 
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN CALIFORNIA A LONG  
WITH AIR QUALITY ALERTS. VERY DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITH LOW  
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER CALIFORNIA AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS  
WILL ALL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FIRE WEATHER. THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHILE CRITICAL  
CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD  
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AS WELL. AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE  
UP FOR THE ON GOING FIRES THAT WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITY OVER  
THE PERIOD.  
 
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  
TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL AID IN DEVELOPING SNOW AND RAIN  
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY THAT WILL END OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND  
THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT MONDAY. LATE MONDAY  
NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND  
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
TUESDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL END OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY  
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER  
THE GREAT LAKES AND COLD AIR WILL AID IN PRODUCING LAKE EFFECT  
SNOW DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL WIND DOWN ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD  
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL GULF COAST AND  
THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL BE CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST BY  
TUESDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER  
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE FROM  
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL STREAM INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO  
THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL AS THE OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC ENDING OVER  
THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY  
TUESDAY EVENING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE  
SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO MAINE BY  
TUESDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MONDAY EVENING THAT WILL MOVE  
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN  
WILL END OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING AND THE  
MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY.  
 
ELSEWHERE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST ON TUESDAY EVENING THAT WILL  
MOVE INLAND TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY  
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS,  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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