624  
FXUS01 KWBC 130800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2018  
 
VALID 12Z TUE NOV 13 2018 - 12Z THU NOV 15 2018  
 
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA WITH AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR SMOKE...  
 
...LAKE ENHANCED SNOW FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SNOW FOR THE  
INTERIOR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED...  
 
...WINTER WEATHER EVENT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...  
 
THOUGH THE WORST OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE WOUND DOWN  
FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER IS  
FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS  
REMAIN IN EFFECT, AS LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WINDY CONDITIONS  
WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY GROUND FROM ONGOING DROUGHT.  
ADDITIONALLY, AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE IN PLACE BECAUSE OF ONGOING  
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES. AIR QUALITY IS ESPECIALLY POOR IN THE  
VALLEYS WHERE THE SMOKE GETS TRAPPED BY AN INVERSION.  
 
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE EASTERN  
SEABOARD TODAY, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. RAIN IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND COASTAL NORTHEAST  
TODAY, WHILE THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO GET  
SNOW. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH IN COASTAL NEW  
ENGLAND, AND SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE HIGH IN NORTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND, WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES FORECAST. A COLD FRONT SWEEPING  
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRENGTHENING JET STREAM WILL LEAD  
TO LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AS WELL. SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD BE 6 TO 10  
INCHES DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES.  
 
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS IT DOES  
SO, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY EVENING  
AND MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND YET  
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ALONG  
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALL THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER  
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE EASTERN U.S. THIS TIME, SNOW IS  
POSSIBLE CENTERED OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI, WITH 2 TO 6  
INCHES FORECAST. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE FREEZING  
RAIN--ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE  
THE HIGHEST TOTALS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS  
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE  
CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE. STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES, AS  
WINTER WEATHER FORECASTS CAN CHANGE UP UNTIL (AND THROUGHOUT) THE  
EVENT. FARTHER SOUTH, HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,  
AND A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE FOR PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN FLORIDA ON  
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FRONT LINGERS THERE.  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK, BUT THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGHOUT THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL REMAIN  
COLDER THAN AVERAGE. FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT  
FOR MUCH OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. RECORD LOW  
MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD BE SET IN TEXAS AND THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, FLORIDA IS  
FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM, WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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