958  
FXUS01 KWBC 132000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 PM EST TUE NOV 13 2018  
 
VALID 00Z WED NOV 14 2018 - 00Z FRI NOV 16 2018  
 
...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE  
THIS EVENING AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...  
 
...AN ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY  
THURSDAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...  
 
...FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS  
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...  
 
CRITCAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO WEDESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS COMBINE WITH ALREADY  
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND ONGOING DROUGHT. HIGH WIND  
WARNINGS AND RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION, AIR  
QUALITY ALERTS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE VALLEY OF CENTRAL  
CALIFORNIA DUE TO HEAVY SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILDFIRES. ALTHOUGH  
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT BY THURSDAY, AN AT LEAST  
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  
 
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EXITING NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL  
PULL HEAVY PRECIPITATION AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT SHOULD  
CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DOWNWIND OF  
THE UPPER AND LOWER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER  
SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY  
WEDNESDAY, DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND  
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS ON THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION IS EXPECTED  
WITH WPC SHOWING A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING. THE BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE  
WITH A WINTER WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD FROM THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC  
WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE LIKELY. THE HIGHEST SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ITSELF  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WHERE 4 TO 8  
INCHES IS FORECAST. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, THE  
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE INTERIOR MID-ATLANTIC (WEST OF  
I-95), GENERALLY 1 TO 2+ INCHES IS EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN WILL  
ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS SOME OF THESE SAME LOCATIONS WITH  
GENERALLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO  
VALLEY AND WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC BUT MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS  
OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND PARTS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA AND  
MARYLAND.  
 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CONUS, MUCH OF THE EAST WILL  
EXPERIENCE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE  
PERIOD. A SWATH OF FREEZE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT  
THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL AND RECORD LOW DAYTIME TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH  
VALUES STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THE LOW 30S TO MID-40S.  
MEANWHILE OUT WEST AND INTO THE NORTHERN TIER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
STAY ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AS MUCH  
AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
PLAINS.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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