641  
FXUS01 KWBC 140800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 AM EST WED NOV 14 2018  
 
VALID 12Z WED NOV 14 2018 - 12Z FRI NOV 16 2018  
 
...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ARE LIKELY FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND  
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST...  
   
..HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
 
 
   
..ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
 
 
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
AS IT DOES SO, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY, WITH ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
STRENGTHENING AND MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WINTRY  
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER  
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SPREADING EAST AND NORTH TO THE  
OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. BOTH SNOW  
AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE HEAVIEST SNOW  
ON WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY UNDER  
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW CURRENTLY EXPECTED  
IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. MORE HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY FOR INTERIOR  
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS  
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF  
SNOW IS FORECAST THERE AS WELL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
CITIES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE TOO  
MUCH SNOW. IN TERMS OF FREEZING RAIN, OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF  
ACCUMULATED ICE IS LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS. LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BE SEEN  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND  
NORTHEAST.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON  
WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS IN AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING  
IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. ON THURSDAY  
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH, HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHERE IT WILL NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR  
WINTER PRECIPITATION.  
 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE  
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, ACCORDING  
TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. WINDS WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG  
IN THE MORNING, WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND EXTREMELY DRY  
GROUND FROM ONGOING DROUGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY  
WEDNESDAY EVENING, SOMEWHAT LESSENING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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