919  
FXUS01 KWBC 191945  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
244 PM EST MON NOV 19 2018  
 
VALID 00Z TUE NOV 20 2018 - 00Z THU NOV 22 2018  
 
...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT  
LAKES AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...  
 
...IMPROVING AIR QUALITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH  
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...  
 
...MODERATE RAIN TO IMPACT CENTRAL/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY  
WEDNESDAY BRINGING BOTH RELIEF AND POTENTIAL PROBLEMS...  
 
...BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST  
MID-WEEK...  
 
A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPROACHING PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK  
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT TO  
MODERATE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK  
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS (3-6 INCHES) FORECAST  
FROM THE CATSKILLS INTO THE BERKSHIRES, GREEN MOUNTAINS INTO  
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE. ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED  
FROM BOSTON TO PHILADELPHIA GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THIS  
WILL ALL OCCUR AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE OF  
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.  
 
A SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT  
BUT A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION FROM  
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE UPPER  
GREAT LAKES AND SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE  
NORTHEAST FOR THANKSGIVING. AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES  
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL RANGE 10 TO  
20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH SIMILAR ANOMALIES  
SPREADING TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST FOR  
WEDNESDAY. FOR THANKSGIVING, HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES  
BELOW LATE NOVEMBER AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST OF  
THE NORTHEAST.  
 
THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO MID-WEEK AS  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN U.S. BRINGING  
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY. OUT WEST, THE DEPARTURE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THE  
APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BRING THE FIRST IN A SERIES  
OF COLD FRONTS AS THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN UNDERGOES A  
SHIFT. THE FIRST COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE INTO CALIFORNIA LATE IN  
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, PRECEDED BY RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW  
INTO THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE DEPARTURE OF STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE  
AND THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WILL BRING WELCOME RELIEF TO POOR  
AIR QUALITY WHICH HAS BEEN PLAGUING PORTIONS OF THE WEST FOR  
WEEKS, AS WELL AS TO HELP GET THE ONGOING CAMP FIRE IN NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA UNDER CONTROL. THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE AT TIMES WHICH  
COULD CAUSE DEBRIS FLOWS GIVEN FRESH BURN SCARS IN PORTIONS OF  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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