102  
FXUS01 KWBC 231954  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
254 PM EST FRI NOV 23 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SAT NOV 24 2018 - 00Z MON NOV 26 2018  
 
...WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS FROM THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO FLASH  
FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND MUDSLIDES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BREAK  
IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...  
 
...HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE ROCKIES...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST ON  
SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE IN THE  
APPALACHIANS...  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS ACROSS CALIFORNIA SHOULD FINALLY  
BREAK THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, DEBRIS  
FLOWS, AND MUDSLIDES REMAIN INTO SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OVER RECENT  
BURN SCARS. ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE  
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. ACCUMULATIONS UP  
TO 2 FEET ARE FORECAST, AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER  
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE REGIONS.  
 
BY SATURDAY EVENING, THIS SAME UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM REACHES THE  
CENTRAL U.S. INDUCING A LOW AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS. AS THIS LOW TRACKS EASTWARD, A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY TO  
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY FROM  
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE, AND WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN  
EFFECT FROM NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FOR THE  
POTENTIAL OF 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY SNOW,  
STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL  
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE HARDEST-HIT AREAS. THIS COMBINATION  
OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AND WILL  
CERTAINLY MAKE FOR POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS TO END  
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING HEAVY  
SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY.  
 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD TONIGHT FROM THE GULF  
COAST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING. BY SATURDAY MORNING, RAINFALL INTENSITY  
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL BEGIN TO  
RAMP UP AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE  
SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SATURDAY,  
WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FOLLOWING SUIT REACHING THE NEW  
ENGLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING. WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE COAST, MOST  
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, EXCEPT IN THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS WHERE  
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GENERALLY, UP TO A  
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS FORECAST WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES  
IN EFFECT FROM WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.  
 
AFTER A CHILLY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY FOR MANY IN THE EAST,  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BY THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS  
NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL U.S., ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON SATURDAY GET REPLACED BY  
BELOW NORMAL VALUES ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG  
COLD FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS, AND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES COULD BE AS  
MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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