838  
FXUS01 KWBC 290800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 AM EST THU NOV 29 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU NOV 29 2018 - 12Z SAT DEC 01 2018  
 
...HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED NEAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE SIERRA-NEVADA  
INTO FRIDAY MORNING...  
   
..ACTIVE WEATHER TO IMPACT THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
 
 
A WET, ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
FOR THE WEST, PARTICULARLY IN CALIFORNIA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
APPROACHING THE WEST COAST IS CURRENTLY BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL,  
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS CALIFORNIA WITH HEAVY SNOW IN  
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY  
WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT  
BASIN. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND UPPER LEVEL LOW, MOVES FARTHER  
INLAND, PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL  
ROCKIES WHILE STILL MAINTAINING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA. BY FRIDAY EVENING, CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT  
WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IN THE GREAT  
BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. HOWEVER, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AT THIS TIME--BRINGING MORE  
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION IN ADDITION TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SIERRA-NEVADA THROUGH  
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER TWO FEET  
EXPECTED ABOVE 7,000 FEET. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL ALSO  
BE A CONCERN. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ALSO IN EFFECT ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOUNTAINS ACROSS UTAH AND ARIZONA THROUGH  
FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT BURN SCARS AND EXPECTED HEAVY  
RAINFALL OVER SEVERAL DAYS, FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN FOR PARTS  
OF CALIFORNIA. AS SUCH, FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT IN  
PORTIONS ACROSS THE STATE. SEE WPC'S EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRAPE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY  
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS  
WILL BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY, THIS  
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH AN  
INCOMING OCCLUDED SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE  
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BRING  
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE  
IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY IN THIS  
REGION ALONG WITH A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR THE LOWER  
AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FARTHER NORTH, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH NORTH-CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY, HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT THE  
SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. SEE WPC'S  
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS WINTER STORM.  
 
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND  
SOUTHEAST TODAY--SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF  
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN.  
BY SATURDAY, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE 15 DEGREES  
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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