584  
FXUS01 KWBC 300719  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
218 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 30 2018 - 12Z SUN DEC 2 2018  
 
...MULTI-FACETED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN U.S. IS  
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAIN, AND  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY  
FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE TEXAS  
PANHANDLE REGION AND OKLAHOMA IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION EXPANDS IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY  
FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS BY  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE  
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW, MULTIPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE  
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE  
ARKLATEX REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS MUCH  
OF THAT REGION DELINEATED IN AN ENHANCED RISK AREA FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS, GIVEN FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC  
PARAMETERS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO EXIST. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING  
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ALSO NEAR  
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WHERE 2 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WILL BE  
POSSIBLE.  
 
WINTER WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR COMPONENT OF THIS MID-LATITUDE  
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW. WINTER  
STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM CENTRAL  
MONTANA TO NORTHERN IOWA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 8 INCHES OR MORE  
OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN  
NEBRASKA. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES  
GIVEN THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS ANTICIPATED NORTH OF  
THE SURFACE LOW, MAKING TRAVEL CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT  
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND POINTS SOUTH  
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO  
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH READINGS  
WELL INTO THE 70S AND REACHING THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA.  
MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE  
FORECAST PERIOD ON SUNDAY.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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