166  
FXUS01 KWBC 011800  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1259 PM EST SAT DEC 01 2018  
 
VALID 00Z SUN DEC 02 2018 - 00Z TUE DEC 04 2018  
 
...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND  
MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ALSO THE CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW TRACKS  
FROM KANSAS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF  
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE  
ADVANCING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND THIS COUPLED WITH  
AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A THREAT OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,  
AND ALSO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. IN FACT, THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY HAS MUCH OF THESE AREAS  
DELINEATED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH  
TONIGHT, WITH THE HAZARDS INCLUDING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS AND  
LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN WITH LOCALLY  
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE  
GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL DRIVE A THREAT FOR SOME FLOODING, AND  
IN FACT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED AREAS OF THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHEAST ALABAMA, AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IN A  
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
WINTER WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR COMPONENT OF THIS MID-LATITUDE  
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW. WINTER  
STORM WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM EASTERN MONTANA TO  
NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, AND SOME LOCATIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO SEE IN EXCESS OF ONE FOOT OF SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST  
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND  
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL BE RATHER STRONG ON THE BACK  
SIDE OF THE DEEPENING LOW CENTER, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF  
BLOWING SNOW AND VERY POOR VISIBILITY WHICH WILL MAKE HAZARDOUS  
TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POWER  
OUTAGES TOO, AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE SNOW BEING HEAVY AND WET.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE MILD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT  
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND POINTS SOUTH  
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD BE AS MUCH AS 15 TO 20  
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH READINGS WELL  
INTO THE 70S AND REACHING THE MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA. MUCH  
COLDER WEATHER WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING  
OF THE WORK WEEK ON MONDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH  
FROM CANADA.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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