359  
FXUS01 KWBC 051913  
PMDSPD  
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
213 PM EST WED DEC 05 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU DEC 06 2018 - 00Z SAT DEC 08 2018  
 
...STORM SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO CALIFORNIA  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...  
 
...A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING ICE AND SNOW  
TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL START TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL  
TEXAS...  
 
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN CALIFORNIA, ESPECIALLY  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THROUGH THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE RAIN WILL NOT  
BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY, MINOR DEBRIS FLOWS OR MUDSLIDES ARE STILL A  
CONCERN NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SNOW IS  
ALSO EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA RANGE  
AND ABOVE SIX THOUSAND FEET ELEVATION IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR LOS  
ANGELES. THIS SAME WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD LOW ELEVATION RAIN  
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN  
GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY AS WELL.  
 
EAST OF THE ROCKIES, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE  
SOUTHEASTERN STATES MAINTAINING A QUIESCENT PATTERN THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A SECOND STRONG HIGH WILL SPILL OUT  
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND USHER IN A SURGE OF COLD AIR THROUGH  
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO  
BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULAR ACROSS  
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS COLD OUTBREAK WILL  
SET THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASING WINTER WEATHER THREAT AS THE WEST  
COAST STORM CROSSES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SOLID MOISTURE  
PLUME IN ADVANCE OF IT, STARTING OFF AS FREEZING RAIN BY EARLY  
FRIDAY SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM EASTERN NEW  
MEXICO TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ALONG WITH  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE  
HIGHLY FOCUSED IN PRODUCING PROLONGED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL  
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE RAINFALL WILL  
BECOME STEADY AND HEAVY ENOUGH TO START THE THREAT OF FLOODING IN  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS, PERHAPS WITH AN EMBEDDED FLASH  
FLOODING THREAT TOO, THOUGH IT GROWS GREATER OVERNIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 
GALLINA/BURKE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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