489  
FXUS01 KWBC 060812  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
311 AM EST THU DEC 06 2018  
 
VALID 12Z THU DEC 06 2018 - 12Z SAT DEC 08 2018  
 
...LATE WEEK WINTER STORM TO BRING ICE AND SNOW FROM PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND EASTWARD TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS  
WEEKEND...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINS TO IMPACT TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY ON FRIDAY...  
 
...BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...  
 
THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD BEGINS WITH RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
COMING TO AN END DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH LOW ELEVATION  
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ALSO MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. EAST OF THE ROCKIES, SHOWERS  
(SNOW TO THE NORTH AND RAIN TO THE SOUTH) ARE LIKELY ALONG A COLD  
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT  
LAKES AS WELL AS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF  
COLD AIR INTO THE CENTRAL STATES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON THURSDAY  
AND FRIDAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO OKLAHOMA.  
 
THE COLD OUTBREAK WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WINTER STORM DEVELOPING  
BY FRIDAY FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND  
EVENTUALLY POINTS EAST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WESTERN  
U.S. PUSHES EASTWARD AND MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT,  
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE APPEARS LIKELY FROM EASTERN NEW  
MEXICO TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY WITH SNOW TOTALS OF 4 TO 8  
INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SWATH OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT ICE IS ALSO  
FORECAST FROM ROUGHLY LUBBOCK, TX TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY, OK WITH  
ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES POSSIBLE. SOUTH OF  
THIS REGION, HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS RAINFALL INCREASES IN INTENSITY  
NEAR A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS, FLASH  
FLOODING WILL BECOME A THREAT AND WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITHIN A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL. THIS SAME SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND CONTINUE BEYOND  
THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD SPREADING HAZARDOUS WINTRY WEATHER FROM  
PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS, AND HEAVY  
RAINFALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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