229  
FXUS01 KWBC 070631  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
130 AM EST FRI DEC 7 2018  
 
VALID 12Z FRI DEC 7 2018 - 12Z SUN DEC 9 2018  
 
...WINTER STORM TO BRING ICE AND SNOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO  
THE APPALACHIANS, AND HEAVY RAIN FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO GEORGIA...  
 
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING WILL TAKE A SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO  
THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN  
NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES BY LATE FRIDAY, AND  
CONTINUING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WITH AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES  
AND LOCALLY HIGHER. IN ADDITION, ICE ACCRETION OF ABOUT A TENTH  
OF AN INCH, PERHAPS HIGHER, WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE  
OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND, ROUGHLY FROM LUBBOCK TO OKLAHOMA CITY.  
 
IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE LOW, HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP SURGE OF MOISTURE  
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CURRENTLY  
HAS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY  
NIGHT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL  
EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH AT TIMES,  
INCREASING THE THREAT OF FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE ALSO  
IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
EXISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AS  
HEAVY BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF IT.  
 
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG THE GULF COAST  
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY, A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND ICE IS  
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE  
TEXAS PANHANDLE TO THE OZARKS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS, AND ALSO FOR  
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT PIEDMONT REGION. TRAVEL  
WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY AFFECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS, AND  
SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION, SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY  
ACROSS PARTS OF MICHIGAN AND NEW YORK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS  
COLD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CROSSES THE WARMER LAKE WATERS. SHOWERS  
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON  
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A  
LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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