120  
FXUS01 KWBC 122000  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EST WED DEC 12 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU DEC 13 2018 - 00Z SAT DEC 15 2018  
 
...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST  
REGION...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT  
INTO THURSDAY...  
 
A DEVELOPING STORM THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN  
U.S. HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE  
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS WELL AS HEAVY SNOW IN THE NORTHERN  
WASHINGTON CASCADES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL  
EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW  
PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH NORTHERN TEXAS AND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT  
TRAILING TO ITS SOUTH. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN  
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS GIVEN  
THE EXPECTATION OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH BEGINNING TONIGHT AND  
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE  
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO HAVE THE EFFECT OF AN INCREASED RISK OF  
SPREADING OF WILDFIRES ACROSS FAR WESTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN  
TEXAS. COLD TEMPERATURES ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH INTO TEXAS  
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH LIGHT  
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY.  
 
MOISTURE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO  
FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX AND A  
LOW-END THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER'S MARGINAL RISK EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS  
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND  
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES  
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE STEADY, LIGHT TO MODERATE  
INTENSITY RAIN FALLS TO THE NORTH FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WASHINGTON  
TONIGHT BUT STALL, ALLOWING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW  
INTO NORTHWEST WASHINGTON TONIGHT. HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE  
NORTHERN CASCADES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING FOR THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA  
ARE EXPECTED GIVEN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR UPSLOPE  
FAVORED LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING. A BRIEF LULL IN  
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF  
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO NEAR THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW,  
THOUGH NOT AS HEAVY, WILL BE TIED TO THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH  
FALLING SNOW LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY. FARTHER EAST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., DOWNSLOPING  
FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S,  
ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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