544  
FXUS01 KWBC 261950  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
248 PM EST WED DEC 26 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU DEC 27 2018 - 00Z SAT DEC 29 2018  
 
...SIGNIFICANT POST-CHRISTMAS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL  
AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK...  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC AND THE APPALACHIANS...  
 
...NEW WINTER STORM ARRIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY  
FRIDAY...  
 
A STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY EJECTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BY  
THURSDAY EVENING. A SIGNIFICANT POST-CHRISTMAS WINTER STORM IS  
EXPECTED AS A RESULT WITH HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LIKELY  
ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND ALSO  
THE UPPER MIDWEST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THIS  
WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT  
IMPACTS TO ROAD AND AIR TRAVEL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1 FOOT FROM AREAS OF FAR  
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND ACROSS  
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW  
CENTER AS IT GRADUALLY ADVANCES NORTHEAST AND INTO CANADA WILL BE  
THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. COLD AIR THAT IS ALREADY  
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SPILL OUT INTO THE PLAINS  
AND BE REINFORCED BY COLD AIR COMING SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AS MUCH AS 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL BY FRIDAY FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EAST OUT ACROSS A  
LARGE AREA OF THE PLAINS.  
 
MEANWHILE, ON THE WARM SIDE THE SAME STORM SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE A  
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND  
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THE THREAT WILL INITIALLY COVER A LARGE  
AREA OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, BUT WILL  
THEN SHIFT EAST TO INCLUDE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON THURSDAY AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING  
FROM THE WEST. IN FACT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS  
HIGHLIGHTED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT, FOR THE EXPECTATION OF THUNDERSTORMS  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A  
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTED FARTHER TO  
THE EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF  
COAST STATES FOR THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL OF AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4  
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS, AND THIS WILL  
RESULT IN SOME CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING AS WELL FOR THE SAME  
AREAS SEEING THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WEATHER  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK TO ADDRESS THE  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT.  
 
BY FRIDAY, THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.  
ALONG WITH A SURGE OF MUCH MILDER AIR THAT WILL RESULT IN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE LOCALLY 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
HOWEVER, ALONG WITH THE WARMER WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN FOR HEAVY  
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS  
AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF  
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHERN  
APPALACHIANS. SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT,  
AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA  
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THIS REGION.  
 
ALSO, THE NEXT WINTER STORM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST U.S. BY FRIDAY, WHICH WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AGAIN TO  
PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN  
ROCKIES. LOCALLY OVER 1 FOOT OF NEW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND  
ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THIS REGION  
AS THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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