791  
FXUS01 KWBC 160758  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
257 AM EST WED JAN 16 2019  
 
VALID 12Z WED JAN 16 2019 - 12Z FRI JAN 18 2019  
   
..HEAVY PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO CALIFORNIA
 
 
   
..ARCTIC AIR SURGES SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
 
 
A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL HAMMER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY  
THURSDAY AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW TRACKS TOWARDS THE COAST. AN  
IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE  
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST COAST STATES, WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF  
RAIN LIKELY FOR MANY AREAS. A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AND A  
MODERATE RISK FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN NEAR LOS ANGELES, ALONG  
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MUD SLIDES.  
 
BLIZZARD CONIDTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AT  
LEAST TWO FEET OF SNOW AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. VERY HEAVY  
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND  
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CASCADES. AS THE STORM SYSTEM  
MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS  
ARE EXPECTED FROM NEVADA TO WESTERN COLORADO, AND THESE COULD BE  
HEAVY AT TIMES.  
 
ELSEWHERE, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE  
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING FRIGID  
TEMPERATURES TO THE DAKOTAS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THE MIDDLE  
PART OF THE WEEK. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 15-20  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH THIS  
FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER GREAT  
LAKES AND SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  
 
WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION, RETURN FLOW  
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH  
EASTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE SOME SHOWERS ARE  
LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST  
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC. ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND  
OHIO VALLEY, EXPECT SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  
 
REINHART/HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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