037  
FXUS01 KWBC 181957  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
256 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2019  
 
VALID 00Z SAT JAN 19 2019 - 00Z MON JAN 21 2019  
 
...MAJOR WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MIDWEST  
INTO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
SOUTHEAST...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO CALIFORNIA  
THIS WEEKEND, WITH HEAVY SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
NORTHWEST...  
 
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE PLAINS  
TODAY, AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND  
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE  
NORTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW, WIDESPREAD  
WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AND A MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ON TAP  
FROM THE MIDWEST TO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST. 6  
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, BUT THE  
HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, WHERE  
1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS FORECAST. ALONG THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN  
RAIN AND SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS  
OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NORTHEAST  
COAST. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL, WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND AN ARCTIC HIGH PUSHING INTO  
THE PLAINS. THE HIGH WILL CAUSE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE  
LOW SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE  
ARE FORECAST FOR THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON  
SATURDAY, AND THESE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO  
THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING  
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY, AS  
GULF MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A SLIGHT RISK OF  
SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
STATES, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS IN PLACE FOR PARTS  
OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY.  
 
IN THE WEST, A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH  
WESTERN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE  
NORTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL FOCUS INTO  
OREGON AND CALIFORNIA, CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN  
THERE. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT THROUGH  
FRIDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO A SLIGHT RISK ON SATURDAY NEAR THE  
OREGON/CALIFORNIA BORDER. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
CASCADES, SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
SUNDAY EVENING, WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE  
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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