612  
FXUS01 KWBC 011938  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
238 PM EST FRI FEB 01 2019  
 
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 02 2019 - 00Z MON FEB 04 2019  
   
..EXCESSIVE RAIN LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
 
 
   
..HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
 
 
   
..ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SPREAD TO EAST COAST BY SUNDAY
 
 
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT  
LAKES WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY  
NIGHT. THE ENERGY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THAT WILL END BY FRIDAY EVENING. COLD HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE  
EASTWARD OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY EVENING. THIS  
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE  
EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  
 
MEANWHILE, MULTIPLE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL FLOW OVER THE  
GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL  
FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ENERGY  
WILL ALSO AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
A FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WILL  
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AND OFF THE  
NORTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY, SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER  
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WANING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. A WAVE OF LOW  
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL SLOWLY  
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. RAIN  
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON  
SATURDAY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY  
SUNDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN ARCTIC  
AIR TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RESULT WILL BE A SWATH OF SNOW  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY.  
 
IN THE MEANTIME, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WITH AN  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
THE TROUGH WILL CONTAIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE INTO  
THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON SATURDAY THAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE ON  
SUNDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN  
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING, PRODUCING RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION  
SNOW. THE RAIN WILL ALSO MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY, HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW  
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRAS. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, THE SNOW  
LEVELS WILL LOWER AS HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF  
THE GREAT BASIN AS RAIN MOVES INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE  
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY BRINGING  
HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY  
SNOWFALL FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA. FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS  
WILL BE A HIGH CONCERN, PARTICULARLY NEAR BURN SCAR AREAS IN PARTS  
OF CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN  
U.S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LEADING TO MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW, COASTAL  
RAIN, AND WIDESPREAD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  
 
SNELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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