837  
FXUS02 KWBC 020626  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
126 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2019  
 
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 05 2019 - 12Z SAT FEB 09 2019  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM ON TUESDAY WILL  
PUSH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN LIFT INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES/NORTHEAST FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN FROM CANADA  
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR THE HIGH PLAINS BEHIND AN ARCTIC  
FRONT BUT RATHER MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
 
 
CONSENSUS AMONG THE RECENT 18Z/12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF OFFERED A  
REASONABLE STARTING POINT WITH THE PAIR OF SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY AND  
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES INLAND OVER  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CARRY A FRONT UNDERNEATH THE ARCTIC  
AIRMASS TO THE NORTH (STUMBLING OVER THE DIVIDE) THROUGH THE  
ROCKIES AND ONTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY. FOR NEXT  
FRI/SAT, THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE REALLY STRUGGLED WITH BOTH THE  
UPSTREAM PACIFIC EVOLUTION (OFFSHORE OR/CA AS WELL AS ACROSS  
WESTERN CANADA) AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW (AND POSSIBLE  
LINGERING SURFACE WAVES IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY) OUT THE ST.  
LAWRENCE VALLEY. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS IN THE PRECIPITATION  
FORECAST NEXT FRI/SAT (RAIN AND NORTHERN SIDE SNOW) BUT FAVORED  
THE DRIER ECMWF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVEN A FAVORED PROGRESSIVE  
FRONT INTO THE GULF AND ATLANTIC.  
 
   
..WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/HAZARDS
 
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE (20-40 DEGREES NEGATIVE  
ANOMALIES) OVER MONTANA INTO THE HIGH PLAINS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK  
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WILL SEE A LEAD SURGE  
OF MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LEAD COLD FRONT TUE/WED  
THAT WILL AGAIN RISE FRI/SAT UNTIL THAT FRONT PUSHES OFF THE  
COAST. SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH INTO  
THE NORTHEAST.  
 
INITIAL WESTERN STORM WILL FINALLY EXIT ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY  
AFTER A VERY STORMY PERIOD. RAIN WILL EXPAND EAST OF THE PLAINS  
THURSDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE LAKES WITH SOME SNOW ON THE  
NORTH SIDE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF  
WITH LIMITED COLD AIR BUT MAY RESUME IN EARNEST BY NEXT WEEKEND AS  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH NW TO  
W FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES.  
 
FRACASSO  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK  
PROBABILITIES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
 

 
 
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