268  
FXUS01 KWBC 021031  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
531 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2019  
 
VALID 12Z SAT FEB 02 2019 - 12Z MON FEB 04 2019  
   
..EXCESSIVE RAIN LIKELY OVER PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
 
 
...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND  
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...  
 
...RAIN FALLING ON FROZEN GROUND WILL PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN OVER  
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...  
 
...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST COAST BY  
SUNDAY...  
 
MULTIPLE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST  
THROUGH MONDAY, PRODUCING A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVERNIGHT  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL FLOW  
NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN OHIO  
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY. THE ENERGY WILL ALSO AID IN  
PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER  
EASTERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY MOVING OFF SHORE  
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.  
 
MEANWHILE, A FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON  
SATURDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING  
AND OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY. ON SATURDAY, SNOW WILL  
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MOVING INTO THE  
NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WANING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. A WAVE  
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING WILL  
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY  
EVENING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY ON SATURDAY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/OHIO  
VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WARM RAIN WILL FALL ON FROZEN GROUND  
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING PRODUCING AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN. SNOW WILL ALSO DEVELOP  
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO  
SUNDAY. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOW, HEAVY  
AT TIMES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY THAT WILL  
MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY.  
 
IN THE MEANTIME, A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY WITH THE  
ENERGY MOVING INTO NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A  
PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON SATURDAY  
THAT MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY BEFORE WANING  
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL AID IN PRODUCING  
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE WEST COAST EXTENDING  
INLAND TO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON  
SATURDAY. THE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL EXPAND INLAND TO  
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, THE SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AS HIGHER ELEVATION  
SNOW DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL  
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY BRINGING HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE  
CALIFORNIA COAST ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR THE SIERRA  
NEVADA. FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL BE A HIGH CONCERN,  
PARTICULARLY NEAR BURN SCAR AREAS IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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