257  
FXUS02 KWBC 021601  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1100 AM EST SAT FEB 02 2019  
 
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 05 2019 - 12Z SAT FEB 09 2019  
 
...GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER  
HIGHLIGHTS/HAZARDS...  
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AGREE IN SHOWING ANOTHER STORMY PATTERN  
ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED  
TUESDAY BY A DEEPENED LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITING THE NORTHEAST  
AND ANOTHER POTENT/WET STORM WORKING INTO CALIFORNIA AND AN  
UNSETTLED/WINTERY WEST. ARCTIC AIR WILL SPILL DOWN OVER THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE  
NORTHEAST STORM. AN UNCERTAIN SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES  
WILL ACT TO INDUCE LOCAL PRECIPITATION FOCUSING FRONTAL WAVES ON  
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC CHILL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE  
QUITE DATA SENSITIVE AND VARIED WITH RESPECT TO SUBSEQUENT  
PROGRESSION AND PHASING POTENTIAL OF THE MAIN CALIFORNIA SYSTEM  
WED-FRI ON A GENERAL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHEASTERN U.S. DESPITE TIMING ISSUES, THIS STORM OFFERS A  
CONSIDERABLE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW/ICE IN THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE  
TO THE NORTH OF E MAIN LOW TRACK OVER THE N-CENTRAL THROUGH  
NORTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH SOME THREAT OF HEAVY WARM SECTOR  
RAINS/CONVECTION. THE DEEPENED ARCTIC AIRMASS IS SLATED TO SPREAD  
ARCOSS MUCH OF THE NATION IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN  
UNCERTAINTY, THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY  
DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE GUIDANCE SOLUTION.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK  
PROBABILITIES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
 

 
 
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