786  
FXUS01 KWBC 030708  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
208 AM EST SUN FEB 03 2019  
 
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 03 2019 - 12Z TUE FEB 05 2019  
   
..HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
 
 
...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER THE SIERRAS, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE  
UPPER MIDWEST...  
 
...RAIN FALLING ON FROZEN GROUND WILL PRODUCE FREEZING RAIN OVER  
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 36 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN WHILE MOVING  
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY EVENING. A SECOND  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW, OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO  
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT MONDAY. THE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE  
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL AID IN PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE  
CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE STORMS WILL ALSO  
PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE SIERRAS AND OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH  
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS,  
PARTICULARLY NEAR BURN SCAR AREAS. THE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION  
SNOW WILL EXPAND INLAND TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE  
SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY MORNING, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY EVENING. AS  
THE SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST,  
SNOW LEVELS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LOWER TO THE COASTLINE  
ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.  
 
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST  
TO THE GREAT LAKES THEN WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL  
PRODUCE SNOW AND RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FREEZING RAIN WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ON THE FROZEN GROUND OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHILE RAIN  
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS BY  
MONDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS  
ON SUNDAY THAT WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER  
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE SNOW BEGINS TO END.  
 
MEANWHILE, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE OFF  
THE COAST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE ENERGY WILL AID IN PRODUCING LOW  
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD  
OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO  
WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST EXTENDING INTO THE  
SOUTHEAST THAT WILL AID IN PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A FRONT MOVING INTO PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL AID IN PRODUCING  
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
WEST-CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE  
PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES OVER THE  
PLAINS.  
 
ZIEGENFELDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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