721  
FXUS01 KWBC 040801  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 AM EST MON FEB 04 2019  
 
VALID 12Z MON FEB 04 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 06 2019  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS  
OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...  
 
...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS FROM THE SIERRAS TO  
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
 
...ICE STORM FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN  
EARLY TODAY...  
 
...WINTRY MIX EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TUESDAY/TUESDAY  
NIGHT...  
 
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FROM MONTANA INTO THE  
DAKOTAS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST...  
 
A HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 EARLY  
THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTING LOCATIONS WEST  
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND MUCH OF  
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN. HEAVY RAIN  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A  
CONCERN EARLY TODAY ACROSS RECENT BURN SCAR LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN  
CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH THE TRANSVERSE RANGES OF SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA. WHILE RAINFALL INTENSITIES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH ACROSS  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IN RECENT DAYS, MUCH OF THE AREA HAS  
RECEIVED 200 TO 400 PERCENT OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST  
SEVEN DAYS WHICH HAS LEFT THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF DUE TO  
HEAVY RAIN.  
 
AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. OVER  
THE NEXT TWO DAYS, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO  
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA  
AND PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH RANGE, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ALSO  
EXPECTED INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE  
MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, MANY  
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST LIGHT SNOW OVER THE  
NEXT TWO DAYS.  
 
ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO  
MUCH OF MONTANA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES  
RANGING 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
REGION. AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE  
GREAT LAKES, ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF FREEZING  
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE  
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE  
COLD FRONT SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW FOR THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ALL RAIN CLOSER TO THE  
OHIO VALLEY. IT IS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WHERE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE, EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO AND ACROSS THE  
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE EAST COAST, A FAR CRY FROM SOME  
OF THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED EARLIER LAST WEEK ACROSS  
NORTHERN LOCATIONS.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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