185  
FXUS01 KWBC 040904  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
404 AM EST MON FEB 04 2019  
 
VALID 12Z MON FEB 04 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 06 2019  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS  
OF CALIFORNIA TODAY...  
 
...HEAVY SNOW LIKELY OVER MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS FROM THE SIERRAS TO  
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
 
...ICE STORM FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN  
EARLY TODAY...  
 
...WINTRY MIX EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TUESDAY/TUESDAY  
NIGHT...  
 
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FROM MONTANA INTO THE  
DAKOTAS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
EAST COAST...  
 
A HIGHLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 EARLY  
THIS WEEK WITH A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACTING LOCATIONS WEST  
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BRINGING SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND  
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG WITH LOWER  
ELEVATION RAIN. HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN EARLY TODAY ACROSS RECENT BURN SCAR  
LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH THE TRANSVERSE RANGES  
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHILE RAINFALL INTENSITIES MAY NOT BE AS  
HIGH ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS IN RECENT DAYS, MUCH OF THE  
AREA HAS RECEIVED 200 TO 400 PERCENT OF THEIR NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
OVER THE PAST SEVEN DAYS WHICH HAS LEFT PORTIONS OF THE AREA  
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RUNOFF DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.  
 
AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. OVER  
THE NEXT TWO DAYS, SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO  
SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND  
MUCH OF OREGON AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE SIERRA  
NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE WASATCH RANGE, WITH LOCALLY  
HEAVY SNOW ALSO EXPECTED INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKY  
MOUNTAINS. DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT  
LEAST LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  
 
ARCTIC AIR WILL STAY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO  
MUCH OF MONTANA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES  
RANGING 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES  
REGION. AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE  
GREAT LAKES, ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF FREEZING  
RAIN ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE  
U.P. OF MICHIGAN. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE  
COLD FRONT SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW FOR THE  
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FREEZING RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH ALL RAIN CLOSER TO THE  
OHIO VALLEY. IT IS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT WHERE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE 10 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE  
AVERAGE, EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS INTO AND ACROSS THE  
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE EAST COAST, A FAR CRY FROM SOME  
OF THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES OBSERVED EARLIER LAST WEEK ACROSS  
NORTHERN LOCATIONS.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page