188  
FXUS01 KWBC 052001  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EST TUE FEB 05 2019  
 
VALID 00Z WED FEB 06 2019 - 00Z FRI FEB 08 2019  
 
...A DEVELOPING STORM EXPECTED TO SPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND  
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY  
THURSDAY...  
 
...VERY MILD AIR IN THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN STARK CONTRAST  
WITH ARCTIC AIR OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
 
...THE BEGINNING OF A HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING PATTERN IS SETTING UP  
ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR LARGE SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY  
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING  
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. INTERACTS WITH A SHARP FRONT ACROSS THE  
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN AN  
ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE  
GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. THE SHARP  
FRONT WILL SEPARATE VERY MILD AIR ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE  
SOUTHEAST FROM THE FRIGID AIR WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE  
NORTHERN TIER. MEANWHILE, AN ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH  
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT  
WITH THE SHARP FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON  
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
THURSDAY, MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT  
APPEARS THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY FROM THE  
UPPER MIDWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WHILE FREEZING RAIN  
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. STRONG AND GUSTY  
WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE  
STORM CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  
 
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE WEST, SNOW  
LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FOR THE REST  
TODAY, FOLLOWED BY THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. HEAVY  
SNOW CAN STILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY, SPREADING EASTWARD INTO  
THE WASATCH AND COLORADO ROCKIES WHERE OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW IS  
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL  
BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO  
THE GREAT PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
TO THE NORTH OF A STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN 20  
TO 40 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH THE  
COLDER AIR FILTERING SOUTH AND EAST FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE IN  
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE VERY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE FROM THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC  
STATES WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MORE THAN 20 DEGREES  
ABOVE AVERAGE. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE  
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS  
COOLER AIR FROM NEW ENGLAND.  
 
AS THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY  
INTO THURSDAY, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOGETHER WITH  
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BEGIN TO BRING AN INCREASING  
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS. TOTAL  
RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY COULD RANGE BETWEEN 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR  
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH MAY CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS.  
 
KONG/OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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