616  
FXUS01 KWBC 060756  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
255 AM EST WED FEB 06 2019  
 
VALID 12Z WED FEB 06 2019 - 12Z FRI FEB 08 2019  
 
...SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ON  
EITHER SIDE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LYING ALONG THE LEE OF THE  
ROCKIES...EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...  
 
...A STRENGTHENING STORM EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SIGNIFICANT ICE  
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES  
INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND....  
 
...HEAVY TO FLOODING RAINS POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY...  
 
STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER 48 OVER  
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ARCTIC  
FRONT...INITIALLY LYING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND EXTENDING  
EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY..OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. MUCH ABOVE  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTWARD ACROSS AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME...MUCH BELOW AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR WILL BE  
ENTRENCHED ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...THE REMAINDER OF  
THE WESTERN U.S. TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES WILL EXPERIENCE  
PERSISTENT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL  
HEIGHTS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THESE REGIONS THIS FORECAST  
PERIOD.  
 
THE ABOVE MENTIONED ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH OVER  
FIRST 36 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS  
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT FROM THE MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONT...ABOVE  
AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF PRECIPITATION  
TO REPEAT/TRAIN ALONG THE FRONT WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
FLOODING ISSUES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  
 
AS STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS EJECT EAST NORTHEASTWARD  
FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SLOW  
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH AND EASTWARD.  
THIS WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY..INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....OHIO  
VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN  
U.S. BY SATURDAY.  
 
THE STRONG EJECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO HELP  
DEEPEN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY...WITH THIS STRENGTHENING STORM MOVING FROM THE MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A BROAD REGION OF  
HEAVY SNOWS LIKELY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THIS DEEPENING LOW FROM THE  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH STORM TOTALS OF 6-12"+  
LIKELY ACROSS THESE REGIONS. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW  
REGIONS...SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS  
OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO  
NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
 
ORAVEC  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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