544  
FXUS01 KWBC 062001  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EST WED FEB 06 2019  
 
VALID 00Z THU FEB 07 2019 - 00Z SAT FEB 09 2019  
 
...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY  
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES....  
 
...HEAVY TO FLOODING RAINS POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY...  
 
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL  
ROCKIES WILL BRING A WIDE VARIETY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE  
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
FIRST OF ALL, AN ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN TIER, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE MORE THAN 30 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN STARK CONTRAST  
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO  
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE, MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF  
MEXICO HAS BEEN FLOWING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS AN  
ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITIONAL,  
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC IS  
MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UNDER A  
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL ENSURE THE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY, MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES  
THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO  
EXPAND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST  
TONIGHT. THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PICK UP IN INTENSITY OVER  
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASINGLY  
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS THE  
INTENSIFYING STORM CENTER MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  
CLOSER TO THE STORM TRACK, FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BE LIKELY  
ACROSS PARTS THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY ON THURSDAY, SPREADING INTO  
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THE AFTERNOON.  
 
MEANWHILE, SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS UPSTATE  
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT NORTH OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE  
ALONG THE ARCTIC FRONT.  
 
PERSIST DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT  
WILL BRING A INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI  
AND OHIO VALLEY. IN FACT, THE RAIN COULD HEAVY ENOUGH TO RESULT  
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH  
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN  
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD UP THE EAST COAST, EVEN INTO MUCH OF NEW  
ENGLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING UNDER STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. ARCTIC  
AIR WILL THEN SURGE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY  
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM.  
 
MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SEE MORE QUIET WEATHER AS THE STORM  
DEPARTS INTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE FROM A  
WEAKENING PACIFIC CYCLONE WILL REACH COASTAL CALIFORNIA LATER ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
KONG  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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