095  
FXUS01 KWBC 092007  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
307 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2019  
 
VALID 00Z SUN FEB 10 2019 - 00Z TUE FEB 12 2019  
   
..SERIES OF WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT THE WEST
 
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM LOWER/MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEYS...  
 
...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE BY  
MONDAY FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...  
 
THE WESTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE DURING THE SHORT RANGE  
AS A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS MOVES INLAND. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE  
LOWER THAN USUAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY  
NEAR SEA LEVEL, INCLUDING THE SEATTLE AND PORTLAND METRO AREAS.  
THE HARDEST HIT AREAS WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN, PARTICULARLY THE  
SIERRA NEVADA AND CASCADES, WHERE UPWARDS OF A FOOT OR MORE OF  
SNOW IS EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF BLIZZARD  
CONDITIONS FOR SOME LOCATIONS AS WELL. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  
 
A WEAK INITIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL  
RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
TO THE MIDWEST ON SUNDAY. BEHIND THIS, A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM  
EJECTS INTO THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR A SURGE OF  
MOISTURE TO INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. THE  
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FROM ARKANSAS TO WESTERN  
KENTUCKY AS MOISTURE POOLS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. MORE THAN  
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY, AND WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF  
THIS REGION WITHIN A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ON  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION  
SHIELD, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR A WINTRY  
MIX FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC  
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. A  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
WILL BRING ANOTHER WINTER STORM TO THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING BY MONDAY  
EVENING AND CONTINUING BEYOND THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, WITH  
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED.  
 
THE COLDEST SPOT IN THE NATION DURING THE SHORT RANGE WILL REMAIN  
ACROSS MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS WHERE FORECAST DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR  
OR BELOW ZERO ARE 20 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF  
THE YEAR. THE WEST WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK,  
WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
PLAINS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BEHIND  
THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT ON MONDAY.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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