972  
FXUS01 KWBC 101954  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
253 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2019  
 
VALID 00Z MON FEB 11 2019 - 00Z WED FEB 13 2019  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE  
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...  
 
...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY TO IMPACT THE  
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK...  
   
..A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN U.S.
 
 
DEEP MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS  
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, WITH  
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE HEAVIEST  
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO WESTERN  
KENTUCKY, WHERE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES IS FORECAST. FLASH  
FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS EVENT, AND WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED  
A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THIS  
REGION. A WINTRY MIX IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF  
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN  
MID-ATLANTIC WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW  
AND ICE POSSIBLE.  
 
THE SAME UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL  
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SPIN-UP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL  
TO THE SOUTH, THIS STORM WILL ALSO BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO  
HEAVY SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE NORTHEAST.  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, WITH EVEN HIGHER  
AMOUNTS EXPECTED INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS THIS SYSTEM  
CONTINUES BEYOND THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.  
 
A SERIES OF WINTER STORMS IMPACTING THE WESTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE  
TO BRING ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, CALIFORNIA, AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. GIVEN COLD  
AIR LOCKED IN PLACE, SNOW LEVELS REMAIN LOW WITH ACCUMULATING  
SNOWFALL LIKELY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEA LEVEL, INCLUDING THE  
GREATER SEATTLE AND PORTLAND METRO AREAS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT  
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE  
WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES WHERE UPWARDS OF A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW  
IS LIKELY.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD  
SUBZERO LOWS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA  
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN U.S.  
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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