703  
FXUS01 KWBC 131958  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
257 PM EST WED FEB 13 2019  
 
VALID 00Z THU FEB 14 2019 - 00Z SAT FEB 16 2019  
 
...HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST AND HEAVY SNOW IN THE SIERRA NEVADA  
EXPECTED FOR CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...  
 
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...  
   
..SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
 
 
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND  
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN OVER THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS--DELIVERING RAINFALL AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWFALL.  
CALIFORNIA WILL TAKE CENTER STAGE FOR BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG  
THE COAST AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA. THE FIRST ROUND  
OF PRECIPITATION, WHICH IS ALREADY ONGOING, WILL CONTINUE INTO  
THIS EVENING--WITH A SLIGHT LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVERNIGHT  
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL STILL OCCUR. BY THURSDAY, AS A FRONTAL  
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND, MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
EXPECTED--PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA  
NEVADA. IN FACT, FROM THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A HIGH  
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PORTION OF SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY BURN SCARS--WHICH EXACERBATES  
CONDITIONS FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. FURTHERMORE, THE SIERRA  
NEVADA HAS WINTER STORM WARNINGS ISSUED ACROSS THE ENTIRE MOUNTAIN  
RANGE AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 5 FEET ABOVE 5,000 FEET IS  
EXPECTED--WITH 7 FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 9,000 FEET.  
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 70 MPH ABOVE 9,000 FEET.  
THESE WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY  
EVENING. BY FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL LIGHTEN  
UP--WITH HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA.  
MEANWHILE, RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND GREAT BASIN DURING THE SHORT TERM--BUT  
PRECIPITATION WILL RAMP UP ON THURSDAY EVENING AND LAST INTO  
FRIDAY. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN  
IN ADDITION TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES--SEE  
THESE PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS (WWW.WEATHER.GOV).  
 
MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL SKIRT ACROSS  
THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY. COLD CANADIAN  
AIR MIXING WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, GIVING WAY TO A  
SWATH OF SNOW EXPECTED FROM MONTANA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN  
MISSOURI. BY THE WEEKEND, THIS WINTRY MIX WILL STRETCH INTO THE  
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC.  
 
ELSEWHERE, THE GREAT LAKES WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW  
BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AS AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM APPROACHES THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME. BY FRIDAY MORNING, THIS FRONTAL  
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES--SHIFTING THE SNOW TO  
THIS REGION--MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THAT DAY. IN TERMS OF  
TEMPERATURES, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE  
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY--HOWEVER AS THE STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS  
ACROSS THIS AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO 15-25 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE WELL  
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN THE  
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WESTERN U.S., EXPECT TEMPERATURES  
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.  
 
REINHART  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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