408  
FXUS01 KWBC 140758  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
257 AM EST THU FEB 14 2019  
 
VALID 12Z THU FEB 14 2019 - 12Z SAT FEB 16 2019  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE WESTERN U.S. AND TURNING COLDER  
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...  
 
THE BIG THING THAT WILL MAKE WEATHER HEADLINES THROUGH THE END OF  
THE WEEK WILL BE THE ONGOING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT AFFECTING  
CALIFORNIA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING THE COAST WILL HAVE  
AN ANOMALOUS SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING INLAND AHEAD OF  
THE COLD FRONT. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS  
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FOR THE  
COASTAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOUNTAINS,  
CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. FARTHER TO THE  
NORTH, THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS AND SIERRA NEVADA WILL GET HAMMERED  
WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS  
IN EXCESS OF 3 FEET FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. HEAVY SNOW IS ALSO  
IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL USHER  
IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO OKLAHOMA, WITH  
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY  
FRIDAY FOR MANY AREAS. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT AND MOISTURE FOR A  
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO KENTUCKY THROUGH  
FRIDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND EASTERN U.S. TO CLOSE OUT THE  
WEEK BEFORE COLDER WEATHER ARRIVES IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW  
IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC  
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page