709  
FXUS01 KWBC 141953  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
253 PM EST THU FEB 14 2019  
 
VALID 00Z FRI FEB 15 2019 - 00Z SUN FEB 17 2019  
 
...HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
TODAY ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA...  
 
...HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...  
 
THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN AND HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT ACROSS CALIFORNIA  
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND WILL RELAX BY FRIDAY. A  
STREAM OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS  
CALIFORNIA WILL CONTINUE BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST.  
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS PARTICULARLY AT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL  
AND MUDSLIDES--SO A HIGH RISK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS  
REGION--WITH A MODERATE RISK STRETCHING INTO LOS ANGELES. THIS  
RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, HEAVY SNOW WILL  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA THROUGH THE WEEKEND--WHERE  
WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE  
FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL  
LESSEN, WHILE INCREASING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS.  
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN  
ISSUED. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING COULD BE AN  
ISSUE FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA FOR THE REST OF THE  
DAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THINGS WILL  
FINALLY CLEAR UP FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTERMOUNTAIN  
WEST--JUST IN TIME FOR THE NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO OCCUR ALONG  
THE WEST COAST. FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY, RAIN AND  
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED MOSTLY FOR THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA NEVADA.  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BRING  
COLD AIR FROM THE DAKOTAS TO OKLAHOMA, WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE  
ORDER OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY FOR MANY AREAS.  
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD  
PRODUCE ENOUGH ASCENT AND MOISTURE FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM  
MONTANA TO MISSOURI THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY, A STRIPE OF  
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.  
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF  
COAST REGION AND EASTERN U.S. TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK BEFORE COLDER  
WEATHER ARRIVES IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS A  
SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BY TONIGHT.  
 
REINHART/HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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