080  
FXUS02 KWBC 160700  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
200 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2019  
 
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 19 2019 - 12Z SAT FEB 23 2019  
 
...MULTI-DAY THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND  
OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICE...  
...WESTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. COLD/UNSETTLED WEATHER TO FOCUS INTO  
THE SOUTHWEST...  
 
   
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT AND WEATHER HAZARDS
 
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A PATTERN WITH A SERIES OF POTENT  
UPPER TROUGHS/HEIGHT FALLS PROGRESSING OVERTOP A NORTHEAST PACIFIC  
RIDGE THAT THEN DIG SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TO REINFORCE A WESTERN US  
MEAN TROUGH. THE SUPPORTS WESTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. COLD/UNSETTLED  
WEATHER WITH A FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. LEAD DEEP LAYERED AND  
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CHANNELED FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS TO THE EAST MEANWHILE ACTS TO SUSTAIN A SOUTHEAST RIDGE AND  
FUEL MULTI-DAY THREATS OF HEAVY RAIN/TRAINING FROM THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND  
OHIO VALLEY/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC HEAVY SNOW/ICE. THIS OCCURS AS  
MULTIPLE WAVES TRAVERSE A LINGERING SOUTHERN TO EASTERN U.S. FRONT.  
 
IN THIS PATTERN MAIN MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS EJECT FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUE-THU AS A MAIN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS FROM  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST WED-SAT. THIS AMPLIFIED  
PATTERN OVERALL OFFERS ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST PREDICTABILITY NEXT  
WEEK, ALBEIT WITH TIMING/STRENGTH VARIANCE WITH EMBEDDED SMALL-MID  
SCALE SYSTEMS GROWING GRADUALLY OVER TIME. THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE  
PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF WELL  
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE FROM THE RECENT GFS/ECMWF AND GEFS/ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS AND WPC  
CONTINUITY.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK  
PROBABILITIES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
 

 
 
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