222  
FXUS01 KWBC 180759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
258 AM EST MON FEB 18 2019  
 
VALID 12Z MON FEB 18 2019 - 12Z WED FEB 20 2019  
 
...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
PART OF THE NATION EARLY THIS WEEK...  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM  
TEXAS TO THE EAST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BRIEF DRY  
SPELL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST  
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE NEXT  
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY  
AND LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  
THERE WILL BE A DEEP NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF,  
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT THIS MOISTURE AND GENERATE A  
CORRIDOR OF COPIOUS RAINFALL FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO KENTUCKY,  
WITH WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED. WITH MUCH  
OF THIS FALLING ON ALREADY MOIST GROUND FROM THE RAINFALL THIS  
PAST WEEKEND, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AND A MODERATE RISK OF  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS OVER PARTS OF THAT REGION. SOME STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH.  
 
HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY  
MORNING WITH A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE ALONG WITH  
COPIOUS UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.  
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN COLORADO AND MUCH  
OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN  
EXCESS OF A FOOT LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE SNOW  
WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM OF ARIZONA.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED FROM MONTANA TO THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE  
DIGITS AND TEENS WITH A LARGE ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH GOVERNING THE  
WEATHER PATTERN. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOME  
AREAS. SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ARE LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT  
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SNOW IS ALSO LIKELY FOR THE CASCADES ON  
TUESDAY AS A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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