487  
FXUS02 KWBC 190618  
PMDEPD  
 
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
117 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2019  
 
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 22 2019 - 12Z TUE FEB 26 2019  
 
...MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT FROM THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY...  
 
...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY SNOW/ICE THREAT LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES STATES FRIDAY THROUGH THE PLAINS/UPPER  
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND...  
 
   
..PATTERN OVERVIEW AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/HAZARDS
 
 
A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAIN/TRAINING EPISODE  
WILL PERSIST FROM THE LOWER MS/TN/OH VALLEYS TO THE SRN/CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SAT. FLOODING/RUNOFF ISSUES  
WILL BE FUELED BY HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MOISTURE CHANNELING INTO A WAVY  
FRONTAL ZONE UNDER FAVORABLE JET SUPPORT THEN DEEPER WEEKEND  
CYCLO/FRONTOGENSIS.  
 
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT TERRAIN ENHANCED HEAVY  
SNOWS OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND S-CENTRAL ROCKIES STATES FRI. THE  
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THIS  
WEEKEND OVERTOP AN AMPLIFIED AND SLOW TO ERODE BAHAMAS/SOUTHEAST  
UPPER RIDGE. A THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW/ICE LIFTS WITH A DEEPENING  
SURFACE LOW FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT  
LAKES/NORTHEAST. NEW TROUGH ENERGIES DIG INTO A STILL UNSETTLED  
WEST THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT WITH LESS GUSTO THAN THE  
LEAD SYSTEMS.  
 
   
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT AND PREFERENCES
 
 
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOLUTIONS CLUSTER QUITE WELL AT MID-LARGER  
SCALES AND A FAVORED COMPOSITE OF THE GFS/ECMWF, GEFS/ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS MAINTAIN EXCELLENT  
WPC CONTINUITY IN A PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.  
 
SCHICHTEL  
 
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,  
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK  
PROBABILITIES ARE FOUND AT:  
 
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4  
 

 
 
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