042  
FXUS01 KWBC 212005  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
305 PM EST THU FEB 21 2019  
 
VALID 00Z FRI FEB 22 2019 - 00Z SUN FEB 24 2019  
 
...A MAJOR SNOW STORM WILL IMPACT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT  
AND ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR SATURDAY...  
 
...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY...  
 
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO WESTERN  
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...  
 
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH  
MAJOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. UP TO THREE FEET OF SNOW  
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF ARIZONA'S MOGOLLON RIM  
AND OVER A FOOT OF NEW SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE IN  
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH RAIN  
CHANGING TO SNOW FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS  
COLDER TEMPERATURES FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW TRACK. AS THE SURFACE  
LOW STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL PICK UP  
WHICH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, FORECAST  
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA RANGE FROM 4-8 INCHES.  
 
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTERSECTING A STALLED FRONT EXTENDING  
FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EASTERN TEXAS WILL PLAY A  
SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN EXPECTED HEAVY RAIN FROM PORTIONS OF THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE  
INTO KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3-5  
INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL FALL ON TOP  
OF LOCATIONS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED WELL OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL  
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS ARE  
ALREADY FLOODED SO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO A VERY  
DANGEROUS FLOODING SITUATION FOR FOLKS IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY.  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM SYSTEM  
ADVANCES EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH THE STORM  
PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTING AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI,  
WESTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE  
ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED RISK OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE  
THREATS.  
 
OTTO  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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