455  
FXUS01 KWBC 220759  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
258 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2019  
 
VALID 12Z FRI FEB 22 2019 - 12Z SUN FEB 24 2019  
 
...HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WITH MORE HEAVY RAIN  
LIKELY IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...  
 
...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY...  
 
...HEAVY SNOW ONGOING IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SPREAD INTO  
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH FREEZING RAIN  
AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...  
 
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE  
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ALONG WITH A  
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WARM  
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE  
BIGGEST CONCERN ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN PARTS OF THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS--HERE, SOILS ARE ALREADY  
OVERSATURATED, SO THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH  
FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS  
FLOODING CONDITIONS. ON SATURDAY, SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER HAS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER  
FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS, NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHWESTERN  
TENNESSEE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY END ON SATURDAY NIGHT  
AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, DRYING OUT THE  
ATMOSPHERE.  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE  
FOUR CORNERS REGION ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AT  
THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY THROUGH THE  
PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY WHILE  
STRENGTHENING. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE LIFT (RISING MOTION  
OF THE AIR) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE MORE  
WINTER WEATHER. ADDITIONAL SNOW OF 6 TO 10 INCHES IS FORECAST FOR  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MONGOLLON RIM AND THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST AND THEN  
NORTHEAST, WINTER WEATHER WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A  
SWATH OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS,  
WITH HIGHER TOTALS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, FREEZING  
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE IN THESE AREAS, WITH OVER A TENTH  
OF AN INCH OF ICE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR PARTS OF IOWA, WISCONSIN,  
AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. BY  
SUNDAY MORNING, THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG  
WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  
 
IN THE NORTHWEST, ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD  
THROUGH THE REGION AND LEAD TO MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION  
THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THOUGH MAINLY RAIN ALONG THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, SNOW COULD MIX IN EVEN IN THE LOWER  
ELEVATION CITIES (SEATTLE AND PORTLAND FOR EXAMPLE) WITH THE  
PERSISTENT COLD CONDITIONS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CASCADES  
COULD SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IN THE  
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER THAN  
AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.  
 
TATE  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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