893  
FXUS01 KWBC 221952  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
251 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019  
 
VALID 00Z SAT FEB 23 2019 - 00Z MON FEB 25 2019  
 
...HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...  
 
...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY FOR THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY...  
 
...HEAVY SNOW ONGOING IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL SPREAD INTO  
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH FREEZING RAIN  
AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...  
 
PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE  
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS  
ALONG WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT  
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN  
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  
THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAIN IN PARTS OF THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS--HERE, SOILS ARE ALREADY  
OVER SATURATED AND FLOODING IS OCCURRING, SO THERE IS A HIGH RISK  
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS. ANY  
ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CAUSE MORE DANGEROUS  
FLOODING. ANOTHER CONCERN SATURDAY WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS  
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER HAS CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER  
FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS, NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHWESTERN  
TENNESSEE. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY END ON SATURDAY NIGHT  
AFTER A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, DRYING OUT THE  
ATMOSPHERE.  
 
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH  
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE PLAINS BY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN RAPIDLY  
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY WHILE  
STRENGTHENING. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND THE LIFT (RISING MOTION  
OF THE AIR) IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE MORE  
WINTER WEATHER. SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE FROM WESTERN  
KANSAS TO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA  
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST OVER  
WESTERN KANSAS AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND  
SOUTHWEST IOWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. SNOW AND WIND WILL INCREASE  
FROM IOWA NORTHEASTWARD TO WISCONSIN THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH  
TRAVEL BECOMING HAZARDOUS IN THESE AREAS. BY SUNDAY MORNING,  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN A SWATH FROM  
CENTRAL IOWA TO THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AS THE  
STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES, AND EVEN AFTER  
ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, HIGH  
WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW  
THROUGH SUNDAY. NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TRAVEL  
WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WILL ALSO BE  
POSSIBLE. THE HIGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS  
AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
IN THE NORTHWEST, THE WINTRY PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER UPPER  
LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND LEAD TO  
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOUGH MAINLY  
RAIN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, SNOW COULD MIX IN EVEN IN  
THE LOWER ELEVATION CITIES (SEATTLE AND PORTLAND FOR EXAMPLE) WITH  
THE PERSISTENT COLD CONDITIONS. WHERE RAIN DOES FALL, IT COULD BE  
HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS REACHING UPWARDS OF 5  
INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE  
CASCADES COULD SEE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY  
SNOW IN THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN  
COLDER THAN AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.  
 
SNELL  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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